National Hurricane Center tracking 2 systems: Tropical Storm Helene, tropical wave (2024)

(This story was updated to add new information.)

As Florida braces for landfall from what could be a major hurricane, elsewhere in the tropics another system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Helene, currently a tropical storm, is expected to make landfall as a hurricane Thursday along the Gulf Coast. Current predictions put the storm's landfall along Florida's Big Bend, but a more certain track is waiting for the development of a center of circulation.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

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Residents from Louisiana to Florida's West Coast were advised to closely monitor the system.

Forecasters also are warning that the size of what could become Hurricane Helene Wednesday means impacts could be felt hundreds of miles from the storm's center.

Potential impacts include hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rain, flooding and a risk for tropical tornadoes.

"This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. "There is the potential that this storm could further strengthen into a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour.

“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” said Porter. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”

The next name of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Isaac.

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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of  11 p.m. Sept. 24: 

Tropical Storm Helene: What you need to know

National Hurricane Center tracking 2 systems: Tropical Storm Helene, tropical wave (2)

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Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

Special note about spaghetti models:Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene

What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?

National Hurricane Center tracking 2 systems: Tropical Storm Helene, tropical wave (3)

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: Satellite surface wind data from earlier today showed a broad open trough associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Florida could see several impacts from Helene later this week, including hurricane-force winds, heavy rain, storm surge, power outages and a threat for tornadoes.

Gov. Ron DeSantisdeclared a state of emergency for 61 of Florida's 67 counties in advance of Helene.

Excessive rainfall forecast

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.

Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

National Hurricane Center tracking 2 systems: Tropical Storm Helene, tropical wave (4)

The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

National Hurricane Center tracking 2 systems: Tropical Storm Helene, tropical wave (5)

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's next?

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National Hurricane Center tracking 2 systems: Tropical Storm Helene, tropical wave (2024)
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